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2019年6月21日 郝承林

畢非德看美國經濟

聯儲局終於透露減息跡象,這是否美國經濟將陷入衰退的警號?貿易戰會否拖垮美國經濟?現在股市的估值又會否太貴?如果嫌本地評論說不清,那麼不如聽聽畢非德(Warren Buffett)怎麼說。

致股東信 前瞻性強

儘管畢非德是價值投資者,多討論個股,但每次危機前夕,都能在其致股東信中見到端倪。如金融海嘯前,2007年的致股東信便寫到:"Our 76 operating businesses did well last year. The few that had problems were primarily those linked to housing and real estate brokerage operations... Some major financial institutions have, however, experienced staggering problems because they engaged in the 'weakened lending practices'. It is interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money."

即使雷曼兄弟當時還未崩塌,畢非德已聞到燶味,金融系統出了大問題。那麼問題的根源在哪裏呢?「Unfortunately, all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise... confident that HPA - house price appreciation - would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief.」事後回看,近乎百分百正確。股神之名,名不虛傳。

再早一點,1989年的致股東信中寫到對連年股市大漲感到不安。"While those prices may not yet cause nosebleeds, they are clearly vulnerable to a general market decline... it would cause at least a one-year reduction in Berkshire's net worth. We think such a reduction is almost certain in at least one of the next three years."結果不用三年,第二年股市便大跌了。

增速放緩 軌道未變

現在人人擔心美國經濟會陷入衰退,股市又升得太多太久,且看畢非德怎麼說。

(節錄)

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標籤: #政經分析#

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